Beyond China's Coal Fields: Expanding Its Gas Resources

One Example: Pacific Asia China Energy

By 2005, Canadian public companies were awarded CBM concessions - the first Canadian publicly traded firm to obtain not one, but two, production-sharing contracts was Pacific Asia China Energy (TSX: PCE). This has worked out well for this young company. An evaluation by leading CBM appraisal firm, Sproule International of Calgary, assessed the "most likely case" scenario for the company's Guizhou property in southern China at 5.2 trillion cubic feet. Since then, the company has been drilling to confirm this estimate, and recently announced recent drill results "strongly correlate" with the independent technical report.

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We asked the company's vice president of exploration, Dr. David Marchioni about China's view on CBM as part of the energy mix away from coal. He told us, "The central government is pushing hard for CBM exploration and mine degasification, which will yield CBM. They have announced a new formal policy promoting CBM and starting studies for new gas pipelines."

Has CBM registered on the radar screen yet? "CUCBM themselves is actively exploring," Marchioni said. "And CUCBM has production at present, but at fairly low volumes." Pacific Asia China Energy (PACE) may become an important test case, with its massive 970 kilometer square concession in south-central China's Guizhou province, in which the company would earn 60 percent by funding the exploration and pilot program. Would this help China's energy mix? "What would have impact is if PACE or any other players could produce CBM at high volumes and that 'it works' in a big way," Marchioni explained. "The technological learning from this and the news of success would encourage others."

There are other reasons why a small company, such as PACE, would find enormous opportunity in China. "We would not be able to afford a sizeable concession (like this) in Canada or the western world," Steve Khan, executive vice president of the company told us. Our investigation showed a comparable CBM concession, to what PACE holds in China, could cost more than $100 million in one of Alberta's prolific coalbed methane areas.

A concession this size is not something the Chinese government didn't want. Nor is it far removed from a population center. Within a radius of 500 miles, there are in excess of 240 million people. "The growth is so significant that any source from energy, including CBM, is being secured by the Chinese government," Khan said. "The uniqueness about PACE is that we're not looking to produce gas and sell it into the market. We can produce and sell it to the market which we are in. Industrial consumers there are short of gas to run their factories. Many of them are seeking out companies like us to contract for the secure delivery of gas."

One of the problems, which companies developing energy relationships in China face, is convincing investors to focus on the positive aspects of the country's dramatic GDP growth and its insatiable asset to obtain sufficient energy to maintain this rate. "North Americans are a little less attuned to what's happening in China than the Europeans," Khan explained. "When we visit the London fund managers, they look at this as a great opportunity, and they are investing more funds into that part of the world."

Those who appear to be most eager in what PACE has are the Chinese. The company presented at a provincial coal symposium earlier this year. Because the national government has mandated the reclassification of existing coal areas before they can be mined, and because PACE has a joint venture with Mitchell Drilling of Australia, and their proprietary Dymaxion® drilling technology, one major door could open later this year. "We hope to be able to put in a pilot project on one of those coal mines," Khan said. "The Chinese coal mines are very actively pursuing us to push that agenda forward because they are in need of that reclassification."

CONCLUSION

By 2010, it's a good bet China will have invested tens of billions to build up its energy portfolio. Many warn of a slowdown in early 2007, and it might give a much-needed breather to China's runaway growth. Or this might be a brief pause in China's remarkable transformation from an agricultural economy into an industrial superpower. The United States had some fifteen depressions as the country entered and passed through its own Industrial Revolution. It would not be surprising if China experienced volatility during this critical five-year plan. Four years from now, China might very well avert its potential energy crisis. In the meanwhile, this might suck up a great deal of the world's energy sources, or drive energy prices to record highs. Nonetheless, it will be an exciting and erratic period while the rest of the world watches China out-perform the rest of the world's economies.

James Finch contributes to StockInterview and other publications. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com to read all of his archived articles.

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